The current state of quantum cryptography & why readiness is key

The quantum era is right around the corner. Not long ago, this was regarded as a distant development. As new technologies emerge at a breakneck pace, it's increasingly clear that the groundwork is already established and that long-anticipated quantum risks are becoming much more urgent.

The implications could be far-reaching. Advocates believe that the quantum solutions of tomorrow will enhance already powerful artificial intelligence and machine learning opportunities, ensuring that vast datasets can be processed and analyzed with ease. This, in turn, could influence everything from financial modeling to supply chain optimization.

Unfortunately, these potential advancements will be accompanied by a major downside: the limited efficacy of cryptographic systems many people once took for granted. Due to their incredible speed at performing certain kinds of mathematical operations, quantum systems will have the power to overcome algorithms that have always been computationally out of reach for traditional computing systems, putting cybersecurity and overall digital trust at major risk.

This is alarming, of course, but there is also reason for hope: in light of the obvious risks in a post-quantum world, many forward-thinking individuals have come together to help develop new cryptographic algorithms that are prepared to resist future attacks. We provide a deep dive into the current state of quantum computing, along with insight into strategies to ensure your organization is ready for the change.

How close are we to quantum computing?

We have not quite arrived at the quantum computing revolution, but we are certainly getting close. The next big step up could arrive as soon as 2030, when advanced quantum computers may be capable of decrypting sensitive data once deemed safely encrypted.

In other words: the status quo of cryptography will not cut it for much longer. The impending takeover of quantum computing has been referred to as the Quantum Apocalypse, referencing the hugely disruptive nature of emerging quantum solutions.

The current state of quantum cryptography

There is a lot to be concerned about as quantum technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace. At this point, we can no longer expect to rely on cyphers that once seemed all-powerful: RSA (Rivest-Shamir-Adleman) and ECC (Elliptic-Curve Cryptography). These were previously fundamental to public-key cryptography, but these algorithms can be quickly cracked by quantum computers.

The good news? There are already many exciting developments in quantum-safe cryptography, including, most notably, developments in lattice-based cryptography. Lattice-based schemes are difficult for both traditional and quantum computing systems to crack. Furthermore, this lattice-based approach is highly versatile, making it an excellent candidate for a variety of applications and use cases.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are heavily involved in this effort, with NIST breakthroughs believed to have enabled the "first forays into real-world quantum computing and tested the limits of quantum information and security." NIST has already chosen the winning algorithms for post-quantum encryption.

Understanding quantum-safe cryptography

Quantum safe cryptography represents a distinct set of algorithms designed to resist both traditional and quantum attack mechanisms. Through standardization efforts spearheaded by NIST, these algorithms will allow for maximum interoperability, thereby driving widespread adoption.

Shor’s algorithm

No overview of quantum safe cryptography is complete without touching on Shor's algorithm. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm meant to factor large integers into prime components—and to accomplish this at a rate that once seemed impossible.

From a cryptographic perspective, this algorithm is significant because it reveals just how easily quantum computing methods can crack cryptographic systems that primarily rely on the math problems' perceived difficulty. Shor's algorithm could potentially break RSA encryption, which has been one of the most heavily used and relied upon algorithms for public key encryption.

What is quantum readiness and why is it crucial?

Quantum readiness determines whether critical infrastructure is fully prepared to handle the emerging challenges and opportunities anticipated in the impending quantum era. This is difficult to define, but simply taking inventory of existing encrypted systems can provide a strong start. Also important: testing new post-quantum algorithms and working closely with vendors to determine how quantum-safe solutions might be implemented.

The importance of quantum readiness largely relates to the general effort to avoid strictly reactive approaches to digital security. As a critical form of risk assessment and mitigation, quantum readiness acknowledges that existing infrastructure and processes could prove minimally effective down the road—and that the risks of quantum developments must be acknowledged now to prepare.

The transition will take time

There is no simple way to tackle the impending transition to a post-quantum ecosystem. Industry leaders have already dedicated years to developing post-quantum solutions, and, while early breakthroughs are promising, there is still a long way to go before we can truly be confident in the state of quantum security. This doesn't even account for the actual process of implementing quantum-secure solutions as they become available. Because the transition could be slow, it is important to start implementing early measures now.

Crypto agility is key to readiness

Crypto agility is increasingly crucial for organizations as they prepare for the era of quantum computing. The concept involves the ability of an organization to swiftly adapt its cryptographic systems in response to new threats and technological advancements without major disruptions to its operations. As quantum computing advances, it poses significant risk to current foundational digital security practices.

The ability to update cryptographic methods quickly and efficiently—crypto agility—ensures that organizations can maintain security without interruption as new cryptographic standards emerge and as compliance requirements evolve. This strategic agility will enable organizations to handle upcoming cryptographic challenges more effectively, staying ahead of potential security breaches.

Cybercriminals could already be targeting data today

Cybercriminals have a lot to gain from quantum computing, and many will be poised to make the most of quantum exploits as soon as these are possible. Already, the most sophisticated threat actors are well aware of the potential of quantum computing to aid in their attacks—and some are already storing information in anticipation of these eventually accelerated attacks.

This approach is increasingly implemented with the understanding that digital information often has a long lifespan. By simply playing the waiting game, cybercriminals will be prepared to decrypt information in their possession as soon as quantum mechanisms become available.

Readiness allows for experimentation and collaboration

A culture of quantum readiness indicates that organizations are more willing to seek out and embrace cryptographic changes. This, in turn, promotes much-needed research initiatives, which can explore various cryptographic algorithms or techniques capable of resisting not only classical attack vectors but also attacks involving quantum computing.

Once equipped with a strong baseline of protection, there is more freedom to continue exploring emerging opportunities and determine whether they actually have the potential to safeguard vulnerable systems in an age of quantum computing.

This is also important from a collaborative standpoint. It will take strong buy-in on a wide scale to truly combat quantum-related attacks. Collaborative research will allow invested parties to pick up the pace by exchanging new ideas and techniques. As more researchers get involved, it will be easier to share necessary resources, which can lower the barrier to quantum-centric experimentation.

Failing to adapt could impact competitiveness and innovation

The global quantum race is well underway and organizations that fail to prioritize quantum-readiness will quickly fall behind. This could be a huge problem not only from a security standpoint but also because quantum-readiness has such huge implications for business innovation.

By adapting to quantum-ready measures, organizations also limit the time and resources spent combating new threats and instead can focus more on embracing creative, quantum-enabled solutions.

Being prepared eliminates a last-minute rush

The most effective cryptographic solutions are purposefully developed and integrated into comprehensive security systems, and ideally, these processes are handled well before the Quantum Apocalypse arrives. Ideally, this effort will be guided by a quantum-readiness roadmap, which should play into overarching risk management efforts.

This intentional approach to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) can be difficult to achieve when taking a last-minute approach to implementing quantum solutions. A last-minute race to address quantum risks will almost certainly prove haphazard, failing to provide the comprehensive security that organizations will require in this strange new world. Last-minute solutions also may not be sufficiently interoperable or may otherwise pose compatibility problems.

Trust Sectigo for quantum-safe cryptography solutions

At Sectigo, we are well aware of the risks that the new era of quantum computing could pose, especially from an encryption and cybersecurity standpoint. We have committed to helping address these concerns by providing up-to-date research and readiness advice along with offering advanced solutions that can help organizations prepare.

Committed to prioritizing quantum-readiness? Learn more about our PQC initiatives and speak with one of our experts to get in-depth insight into the quantum race.

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