2024 prediction: RSA will come under siege as researchers crack shortcuts to decryption

The digital security landscape is characterized by constant evolution and dynamic changes, and the year 2024 is poised to mark a significant turning point. This pivotal year will see the RSA encryption algorithm face unprecedented scrutiny as researchers around the world intensify their endeavors to break the security backbone of the internet. Brace yourself for new shortcuts to breaking RSA – we are standing at the edge of a new era in encryption vulnerabilities. This prediction serves as your exclusive sneak peek into the imminent threats and a guide to navigating the complex terrain of encryption vulnerabilities and digital security over the next year.

Post-Quantum Cryptography: illuminating the path for researchers

The catalyst for this impending siege on RSA encryption is widespread understanding of the threat quantum computers pose to RSA and the need for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). As the idea of a broken RSA rises in visibility, it has fostered research on the fundamentals of defeating RSA—with or without the participation of a quantum computing architecture.

In 2024, cryptographic experts will continue probing RSA for vulnerabilities, seeking new ways to reduce the time to discovery of an RSA key. The long standing assumption that RSA is unbreachable is a thing of the past. We don’t expect the algorithm to fall in 2024, but we do expect additional revelations of pragmatic attacks to further weaken this long-serving algorithm.

Navigating RSA’s vulnerabilities

Quantum computers stand to defeat RSA and ECC, and qualified researchers are putting energy into finding the strategies to most effectively do so. This research can piggyback on thinking about how to defeat RSA with a traditional computer as well. After all, any attacker with access to quantum computing will also have access to all the traditional-architecture computing it needs.

This fact is a motivator not only for exploration of quantum-based attacks but also for exploration of traditional attacks and of how the two can work in tandem. We should expect continued revelations in the years to come, which will reduce the time to computation for RSA on a variety of fronts. While these attacks on their own are deeply unlikely to bring that time to computation down to the point where they represent viable attack vectors against the key sizes we commonly use today, they will fuel additional research and ultimately will contribute to the optimized quantum-based attack that we will one day understand.

Looking forward

While the siege on RSA encryption is underway, it is crucial to acknowledge that the encryption method itself is robust and has withstood over 40 years of technological innovation. This is not being challenged.

We will see, however, continued scrutiny of this algorithm in preparation for the day when a quantum computer can execute such an attack. We will see continued scrutiny of the idea of applying traditional methods to the quantum platform, and we will see full consideration of hybrid attacks using both architectures together. While we don’t expect a computer to be able to perform these attacks in 2024, the trend toward that eventual day will continue with additional published papers and revelations about how to break this bulwark of digital security.

Throughout December we're looking into the trends and predictions for 2024. Read up about our previous prediction for 2024.

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