Blog Post Dec 02, 2024

The clock is ticking: NIST's bold move towards Post-Quantum Cryptography

NIST is driving the global transition to post-quantum cryptography, setting a 2030 deadline to deprecate RSA-2048 and ECC-256 algorithms and banning them entirely by 2035. This shift addresses quantum computing's potential to compromise current encryption, emphasizing the need for quantum-resistant solutions to combat risks like "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks. Organizations must act urgently, auditing systems and adopting post-quantum cryptographic algorithms to protect long-term data security. Collaborative efforts, such as shorter certificate lifespans and cloud-native solutions, are crucial for public and private systems to adapt effectively.

1. Why this matters: the quantum threat

2. The timeline is set for 2030 and beyond

3. Preparing for the transition

4. What you can do now

5. The bottom line

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has set firm timelines to transition the world away from widely used cryptographic algorithms, including RSA-2048 and ECC-256. According to recently released guidance, these algorithms will be deprecated by 2030 and completely disallowed after 2035. This decisive action underscores the urgency of preparing for the post-quantum era and sends a clear signal: the quantum computing revolution is no longer a distant concern - it is here, and the time to act is now.

Why this matters: the quantum threat

Quantum computing promises breakthroughs in fields like science, artificial intelligence, and healthcare. However, it also poses a significant threat to traditional encryption methods. Algorithms like RSA and ECC, which underpin much of today’s secure internet communication and data protection, are particularly vulnerable to quantum attacks. A sufficiently advanced quantum computer could break these algorithms, rendering them obsolete and exposing sensitive data.

NIST’s decision to set a hard date for deprecating RSA-2048 and ECC-256 isn’t just about anticipating the "quantum apocalypse." It’s about proactively mitigating risks that exist today, such as "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks. In these scenarios, bad actors collect encrypted data now, with the hope of decrypting it in the future using quantum capabilities. This makes the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography an immediate necessity for safeguarding long-term data privacy.

The timeline is set for 2030 and beyond

NIST’s draft guidance (NIST IR 8547) outlines a clear roadmap:

By 2030: RSA-2048 and ECC-256 will be officially deprecated. Organizations must have transitioned to post-quantum cryptographic (PQC) algorithms by this time.

By 2035: These algorithms will be completely disallowed, leaving no room for legacy cryptography in secure communications.

This timeline provides a crucial warning for businesses, governments, and organizations: waiting until the last minute is not an option. By 2029, many organizations, especially those using Microsoft Active Directory Certificate Services (AD CS), may face significant challenges without clear migration plans. Microsoft has already signaled that AD CS lacks a pathway to post-quantum solutions, adding urgency to the situation.

Preparing for the transition

The transition to post-quantum cryptography involves more than just swapping algorithms - it’s a paradigm shift. Organizations must address public and private cryptographic needs to ensure readiness for the quantum era.

Public trust and the industry-wide push

For public systems, the industry is taking a collaborative approach. Companies like Sectigo are leveraging expertise in certificate lifecycle management (CLM) to help organizations adopt PQC solutions. Browsers like Google and Apple have been at the forefront of advocating for shorter certificate lifespans, a move designed to encourage automation and ensure organizations are prepared for the transition to PQC solutions. If your organization has already implemented robust CLM practices, you’ve laid a solid foundation for transitioning to these post-quantum certificates.

Private systems: unique challenges and opportunities

For private systems, the landscape is more complex. Each organization’s use case will require tailored solutions. Microsoft’s decision not to build an end-to-end quantum-ready path for on-premises AD CS highlights the importance of seeking alternative solutions, such as Sectigo’s modern, cloud-native private certificate authority (CA).

Additionally, private systems will face unique challenges, such as adapting to larger signature sizes and new key management practices. These changes offer a chance for innovation, allowing businesses to rethink how they secure critical systems, such as authentication, VPNs, DevOps environments, and IoT devices.

What you can do now

Understand the deadlines: Plan for the deprecation of RSA-2048 and ECC-256 by 2030. For practical purposes, Gartner advises treating 2029 as the operational deadline.
Audit your cryptographic systems: Identify systems reliant on vulnerable algorithms and assess their readiness for post-quantum migration.
Engage security partners: Work with vendors who have expertise in post-quantum cryptography to develop a clear transition strategy.
Stay informed: Keep up with NIST’s evolving guidance and industry developments. The sooner you act, the smoother your transition will be.

The bottom line

NIST’s announcement marks a turning point in the world of cryptography. By setting a hard deadline for the deprecation of RSA-2048 and ECC-256, they are forcing organizations to confront the quantum threat head-on. While the timeline may seem distant, the complexities of transitioning to post-quantum cryptography mean that early preparation is essential.

Whether you’re managing public trust systems or private infrastructure, the message is clear: the time to act is now. By partnering with forward-thinking security providers and embracing the challenges of the quantum era, organizations can turn this moment of disruption into an opportunity for innovation and resilience.